PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal could see its daily vessel movement reduced to approximately 29 ships in February or March 2027 if drought conditions persist, according to its newly appointed administrator. Ilya Espino de Marotta assumed her role on Sept. 7 and highlighted the risk amid El Niño’s impact on reservoir levels. The canal’s operation depends on freshwater from rain-fed lakes to run its locks, and the Panama Canal Authority has already initiated phased capacity reductions due to lower-than-expected rainfall across the watershed.
Starting Sept. 3, the canal provided nine daily Neopanamax slots and 25 Panamax slots, totaling 34 capacity. From Sept. 15, Panamax availability will decrease to 23 slots, reducing the overall daily capacity to 32. These cuts are a response to diminished rainfall during Panama’s wet season and decreased inflows into the canal’s watershed. To conserve water, officials are implementing measures such as tighter booking controls and water-saving practices while closely monitoring Gatun Lake and other water sources.
In fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits daily through June 30, based on official operational data. Between October and June, it recorded 10,726 transits, a 5.2% increase compared to the same period last year. These figures predate recent rainfall declines, which prompted the tightening of operational limits. The waterway connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and is vital for international trade, facilitating container shipments, energy transports, bulk commodities, and other cargo.
Water scarcity restricts transit capacity
The canal’s locks depend on freshwater from Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to raise and lower ships during each transit. Reservoir levels directly influence the number of vessels using the canal during extended dry spells. During the severe drought of 2023, daily transits dropped to 22 in December, as Gatun Lake’s water levels reached historically low points. After rainfall improved and conservation efforts stabilized water supplies, capacity was gradually restored.
Adjustments to vessel draft limits are also part of the canal’s water management strategy. On Sept. 4, authorities delayed a planned reduction in the Neopanamax maximum draft to 47.5 feet. The current 48-foot limit remains in effect, based on Gatun Lake levels and updated weather forecasts. Draft limits influence how deeply vessels can sit in the water, impacting heavier cargo loads and overall operational flexibility.
Operational procedures evolve as capacity shrinks
Changes to booking and auction policies have been implemented as available capacity declines. Daily auction slots now categorize vessels by cargo type, including gas carriers, bulk ships, container vessels, and tankers. When cargo types are similar, full container ships with the highest capacity are prioritized for Neopanamax slots. Authorities advise vessels without reservations to use the booking system, as reduced capacity can lead to longer wait times. Having a confirmed reservation remains the only way to secure a transit date.
The 29-ship daily limit has not yet been mandated but remains a potential restriction for February or March if drought conditions continue. The canal’s management continues to monitor rainfall, watershed inflows, and lake levels before enacting further operational adjustments. Additionally, the Panama Canal is advancing the Río Indio reservoir project to expand its long-term water storage capabilities. This initiative is part of Panama’s broader efforts to ensure reliable water supply for canal operations and over half of the country’s population.